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20240811 – Strategy, Evolution, and War

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MAIN IDEA:

Here is the author’s definition of the main idea of this book:” THIS BOOK EXPLORES THE EVOLUTIONARY BASIS OF HUMAN STRATEGY IN war and considers the prospects of a radically distinct approach to strategy using artificial intelligence (AI). Strategy is defined here as the purposeful use of violence for political ends.” The book specifically reviews the expected transfer of human strategic thinking and action to AI-based processes. The book also reviews various parts of strategic thinking, such as force concentration and allocation, mind reading and deception, and the cultural evolution of strategic thinking. Also interesting is a comparison between human and chimpanzee strategies.  Much attention is also given to Lanchester’s Law and scaled cooperation development prompted by persistent warfare.

MY TAKE ON IT:

I think that we are getting closer to the situation when the use of organized violence will become too dangerous for users and, therefore, ineffective. One of the big reasons for that will be the massive implementation of AI and the development of biological weapons. Both AI and bioweapons represent the qualitative leap in human ability to cause huge damage with minimal effort. As COVID demonstrated, the virus developed in a small lab by a few people could easily expand all over the world and kill millions. Similarly, dominance in AI could allow one side to take over the tools of the other and use them against it. However, the most important will be the difficulty in controlling the use of such weapons. Bioweapons could mutate and start killing organisms on the side of their users. Similarly, AI tools could potentially become uncontrollable. Consequently, the unpredictability of consequences from using such weapons could force all sides to resolve their difficulties peacefully and seek resolution of contentions without resorting to strategic violence in any way, shape, or form.


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