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20230625 – The Next American Economy

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MAIN IDEA:

This book is about the current ideological crisis of the market economy caused by such failures as the financial crisis of 2008, the negative impact of globalization on the working and lower middle class of the developed Western world, and the rise of China, which seems to be demonstrating the economic superiority of the combination of the totalitarian political system with limited economic freedom. The author believes that all this causes the growth of economic nationalism and populism, as represented by Trump’s presidency. Here is how the author defines the objectives of this book:” Recognizing this underscores the need to persuade Americans that markets aren’t just about economic growth. They can also help express and bolster an understanding of America as a commercial republic. This is an ideal of a republican form of political community that integrates a strong case for economic liberty into a vision of America as a free and commercially orientated sovereign nation in a world in which other sovereign nations are pursuing what they regard as their national interests. It is also the ideal which, I believe, represents that the surest political underpinning for an American economy that takes free markets and their institutional supports seriously. As readers will discover, it brings together an understanding of the strong empirical case for free markets and limited government, a commitment to the moral habits associated with commercial society, the conviction that these are good for Americans as a sovereign nation, and the argument that this is ultimately faithful to the principles which were given powerful expression in America during the Founding period.”

MY TAKE ON IT:

I think that the contemporary crisis is not something new but rather the continuation of the ongoing struggle within capitalism between owners of material property and production controllers (capitalists and managers), controllers of political power (bureaucrats, politicians, and state handouts-dependent intelligentsia), and owners of human capital (labor sellers). The most recent temporary settlement between these groups established after WWII is obviously crumbling. The crisis occurred due to the two developments.

The first and obvious development is the temporary, even if the painful, process of devaluation of labor in developed Western countries due to the massive addition of cheap labor either via globalization of trade with undeveloped and totalitarian worlds or opening borders to massive migration (legal and illegal) of people. This process is already coming to an end in the first because the compensation levels in the undeveloped world raised high enough to make production overseas a lot less profitable and in the second because the leaders of undeveloped and totalitarian worlds decided that they strong enough to expand their power over the whole world via economic, ideological, and political subversion – mainly Chinese way, or direct military aggression – mostly Russian way. Fortunately, as it usually happens with totalitarians, the habit of being protected from contrarian views made them prone to mistakes of overestimation of their abilities. The most critical error is their contempt for the elite of the Western democracies. The totalitarians are absolutely correct when they think this Western elite is corrupted and dishonest. However, they are wrong, believing that this elite is stupid and, in Lenin’s words, “will sell us the rope we will hang them with.” The selling of rope is ending, and totalitarians might be surprised to find this rope around their own neck. That is what seems to be happening with Putin and the Russo-Ukrainian war.

The second and less obvious development that led to the current crisis is the permanent disappearance of need in human labor of any type due to complete production automation. The substitution of human mental labor will happen similarly to what already happened with human manual labor over the last 200 years. The latter process caused the creation of unions, socialist and communist parties, and overall ideological struggles of the XIX and XX centuries. It was resolved by the rise of the value of human capital via massive expansion and professionalization of information processing in the form of science, education, engineering, and real healthcare (instead of bloodletting and other similar services). As for a significant share of the population incapable or unwilling to develop human capital, the solution was provided via welfare, drugs, and pop culture. Unfortunately, AI automation makes the solution’s first part outdated. Nobody will need the services of a doctor or engineer, or programmer if AI could do it much faster, better, and cheaper.

I think that the eventual resolution of the crisis will come in the form of the expansion of the private property to the whole population so everyone will be the owner of some property sufficient to obtain resources not only for everyday survival but also for the pursuit of happiness in market independent activities in science, art, gossip, and what not. The way to do it is to recognize that all goods and services are produced using common inheritance of knowledge and know-how. This common inheritance belongs equally to all, and when some people use it to control the production of goods and services, they should pay a royalty to people who are not productive. I suggested the process of how to do it in this essay: https://www.amazon.com/OWNERSHIP-versus-HIERARCHY-Choice-Dominant-ebook/dp/B09KMBP6JG/ref=sr_1_5?crid=MVDILQ3H4Q4X&keywords=branzburg&qid=1685799822&sprefix=branzburg%2Caps%2C114&sr=8-5


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