MAIN IDEA:

This book about history is somewhat unusual. It is not that much about events development as about specific activities: spying, intelligence collection, and subversion. Since any competitive human activity includes a match between shield and sword, the book also has a history of the other side: counterintelligence, security measures, and counter-terrorism. The idea is not only to demonstrate how it worked over centuries but also to show how often it was ignored.

MY TAKE ON IT:

In my opinion, the role of intelligence as information acquisition is often overestimated, while the role of intelligence as a tool of effective information analysis is often understated. Especially poorly understood is the role of general data analysis and leadership decision-making that could prevent the disclosure of secrets and successes of terrorism and sabotage. There are vast numbers of examples of the intellectual failure of leaders to implement preventive security measures or ignoring valuable intelligence about the enemy’s actions. Two of the most consequential cases in the last hundred years come to mind: Stalin’s failure on June 22^nd, 1941, and American leadership’s failure on September 11^th, 2001. In either case, the failure resulted from an intellectual deficiency of leadership.

In Stalin’s case, the rigidity of planning when conviction that Hitler would not fight on two fronts simultaneously led to ignoring all signs that an attack was imminent. Stalin failed to understand that Hitler’s correct evaluation of the UK’s inability to maintain active fighting at the moment and the USA politically restrained by isolationists from entry into WWII, the preventive attack on USSR was the only chance to avoid such a situation. The war was imminent, with Stalin’s USSR actively preparing for the attack and concentrating troops at the border. Whether this attack would come just a few days or weeks after June 22^nd or sometime in 1942, Stalin’s intention to move the communist revolution ahead using Red Army tanks was not in doubt.

In the case of American leadership in 2001, it was the plain bureaucratic failure when compliance with norms, regulations, and political considerations was by far more important than providing security for the country. The reasons for failure that leaders later came up with, including such justifications as “failure of imagination,” sounds quite ridiculous. They could just watch Hollywood movies, some of which included plots with terrorists capturing an airline plane and intending to use this plane as a weapon in populated areas. Some measures that would prevent September 11th were just fortifying doors to the pilot cabin and not complying with any terrorist demands. It is precisely what Israel did after several attacks in the 1970s, and it worked. Moreover, I believe American Airlines intended to fortify doors and advertise higher security but dropped this idea because a few hundred dollars per plane would cost too much.

Anyway, to have good intelligence and consequently know the plans of one’s adversary is nice, but to have leaders with brains in good working conditions is by far more critical.